India lost at Lord’s. Rusty? Nope.

England have won the first Test at Lord’s, beating India by a huge margin of 196 runs. However, India lost the draw, by a small margin of half a session.

Were India under prepared?
England, put into bat, dominated the match, ever since Zaheer Khan injured his hamstring, on the afternoon of the first day. However, it is unfair to say that India were unprepared and used it as a warm up game.

In fact, the previous West Indies series was a prep series, where Praveen Kumar and Ishant Sharma built their confidence. But on the first day, only Zaheer got India the breaks. More than preparation it was the inexperience of Ishant/Praveen to bowl the fuller lengths, which let the crucial morning session slip by. They did bowl fuller later and reaped rewards, but well after India lost the initiative of the toss. They were the ones who were not rusty. Can happen on a first series abroad.

Then Dravid and Dhoni dropped Trott. It happens. They too went to West Indies. Not rusty.

Zaheer Khan has had injury breakdowns in the past, but he has also been the man of the series for India, just as often. So as fans, we can do better by supporting him.

Now the batting…
A total of 350+ looked very much on, after Dravid-Tendulkar’s pro-active partnership of 80 runs, got India closer to 200. Tendulkar failed to get the elusive ton, but his innings was useful nonetheless, as this partnership was the highest in the first innings. However, VVS Laxman, Raina, and Harbhajan who had a good series in West Indies had soft dismissals in the first innings. This meant that India were bundled under 300. But they were the ones who were not rusty for sure. Credit the English bowlers for working them out.

Note: Tendulkar had fever later or batted with it, and Gambhir was struck below the elbow, fielding at short leg. Not exacty in one’s control.

About England…
Anderson’s bowling was not spot on in the first innings. Both Cook and Strauss could not get going with the scoring too. Morgan looked out of sorts about walking/waiting for a decision. Rusty? Perhaps not worth looking into, since England won.

So why did India lose? Not rustiness…

In a nutshell, England-India contests have been close contests since ’07, England last won a Test vs India, in 2005. It was going to happen again someday. It did. Considering so many things that went wrong for India, some not quite in our control, India did well to lose the draw by just half-session.

Congratulations to England. They desrved the win.

Let us move on to the next Test, there is no time in cricket these days to get rusty, even if you choose too.

@saumilzx
Mumbai

India Test Cricket, Home-Away Diff Chart July ’11

India Home-Away in Test Cricket, after 1st Test England, Lords '11

The chart from July 2010, is now updated to version 1.3 View the pdf

#shotzxQ3 Bradman Quiz, $100 Amazon Gift Voucher

Our next shotzx Quiz: #shotzxQ3 on Don Bradman:

What is the most relevant aspect of Sir Don Bradman’s batting for the T20 era?

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India-Sri Lanka, ICC World Cup Final 2011

Tomorrow is the final of the Cricket World Cup 2011 in Mumbai.

Both teams are similar- batting depth for the sub-continent, rely on spin to back their bowling plans, and decent pace bowlers to get through the power plays. Sounds about equal? It should be treated as such, since this is the finals. But here are the chances:

1. India Bat First (90-10 for India): this is the bowling attack which every Indian batsman has the chance of getting a big score and if  not, be able to rotate strike. Murali is great, but all our batters can handle him, especially being injured. I doubt they will risk Ajantha Mendis against us, after he was sorted out many times.

Now about Malinga- who is my favorite Mumbai Indians bowler- but that is T20, where two overs of 4 runs has a huge impact. In T20, Malinga gets many wickets because the batters have to try to get more than 6/7 an over. In ODIs, India have played him cautiously.

So, if India bat first, even if Lankans get wickets regularly or early, I think there is enough depth to post a huge score near about 270 plus, if the track is good. If they do not get Sachin and Viru out in 10 overs, they will be in deep trouble, as then Murali and other spinners can be attacked in Power play 2.

2. Sri Lanka bat first (60-40 India): this is a another story. Yet, I believe India can restrict them under 220. Dilshan has been sorted out, and he is not going to get too to score square on the off side. Sanggakara has also been pinned during the IPLs and many other ODIs. Mahela is a classic batsman and will be key- but his strike rates are usually a burden to the team, if he gets out without a big score.

Bhajji will be showing some of the round-the-wicket magic (as he got Umar Akmal), and Zaheer Khan is the best fast bowler in our conditions. Add Ashwin, who can do a Mendis on Lankans (they have not seen much of him). So if we bowl first, I still do not think Lankans can break away like the Jayasuriya days. Their strike will be in check, but they have a more mature batting line-up than Pakistan, to go beyond 230.

Then when India chase, Sri Lanka have to hope for early wickets. Not easy the way Sehwag and Tendulkar are getting starts with 8 an over. But if they get early wickets, Murali will become a factor. But this time, (unlike 07), all our batsman can rotate strike and not be bogged down if wickets fall, at least not in home conditions. So I think the batting is determined enough to see through a chase.

Every single player has by now understood that you do not get a chance to win a world cup medal with playing conditions favoring you. Although, the home pressure goes against you, if we focus on the 22 yards, this is the best oppurtunity to get on top of the world. For four years, at least.

@saumilzx
Mumbai, India

India-Pak Semi Finals Preview- World Cup 2011

In 2 hours, the second semi-final of the 2011 World Cup will take off. The hype is well and truly on, with prime ministers of both nations, ready to divert attention away from other critical political issues. But the pitch remains 22 yards in length, so let’s stick to cricketing matters.

How can India approach this?

Pakistan bowling: it is a good bowling attack, but for a T20 game. The Pakistan spinners, lead by Afridi are good, but in my opinion Hafeez and Ajmal have skills which can keep the batters guessing for 3-4 overs, not 10 over ODI. You can say that Ashwin and Yuvraj are similar in that sense. But Harbhajan is yet the best spin bowler on both sides, around whom others can chip in a few. If Tendulkar bowls leggies, it will be interesting to see how he goes after the middle order- perhaps bowling round the legs.

Umar Gul and Razzaq cannot run through sides, and their ability to contain for 10 overs can be doubted. Shoaib might play, but surely Indian batters have seen enough quickies in the form of Steyn and Lee in the recent past, not be bothered by his pace. On the other side, Zaheer Khan, has firmly established himself as a wicket taking fast bowler- perhaps the best in Indian conditions.

If India bat first and do not lose a wicket for 10 overs- Pakistan bowling can be exploited. They lack a clear ‘go to’ bowler and will find it tough to restrict India below 300.

Pakistan batting:

One of the biggest issues with Pakistan not playing as much quality international cricket as India, is that their youger batsmen are not seasoned enough to produce strike-rates constructively, as say Kohli and Gambhir- the newer Indians in the top order. The middle order with Yonis Khan and Misbah are solid, but again with moderate strike rates only.

If India bowl first, then they can slip in dot balls as batters tend to be cautious (due to dilemma of target strike rate in first innings). Then they can expect a rash shot as the versatility of Pakistan batters scoring briskly but constructively will be tested. So by beating the batter intent, Indian bowlers can make Pakistan work hard to get to 150-170, even if the pitch is all good.

Indian batting on the other hand is the most versatile it has ever been. Every batter has ability to rotate strike, get boundaries by orthodox shots, and play big shots once set.

So 75-25 in India’s favor at Mohali. India will need to play really poorly to lose this one.

@saumilzx
Mumbai, India
30 March 2011

India Quarter Finals Preview- ICC World Cup ’11

The League Phase of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011 is through. As was expected, the major 8 cricketing nations have made it, thanks to the generous format of the league. England had their nightmare moments, but got a dream gift from the West Indies to get through.

So now what are the probabilities of the Quarter Finals?

Since there will be three knock-outs to be won, the task for a team to win the world cup is more uncertain than past World Cups (where semis/finals decided winner from top 4). Moreover, most teams are about even, it must be said that there are no favorites now. India had that tag, before it began.

But if a team had 70-30 chance in each round, it will be close to 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7 = 35% of winning. However, based on the evidence we have from the league phase, I doubt that can be said of any team, except where top team of a group plays the weakest in the other, if at all (Pak vs WI, SA vs NZ). At 60-40 which is more close to reality, the best teams have a 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 = 21% chance.

So what can we expect from India?

As mentioned India had the favorites tag. But unimpressive bowling at the start of the tournament, after huge totals were posted by batters- added pressure on batters in the games that followed.  The lower order batting collapsed  few times in an attempt to post even higher scores above 330-350+, owing to the lack of confidence in bowling.

Dhoni now has to recover the ‘team to beat’ tag,  The plus on his side, is it that it is getting hotter and the spinners are playing a dominant role. Ashwin is in for India.

Our quarter-finals is against Australia, 24th March. Here are possible factors which can prop India

1. If Sehwag can bat till the spinners come on:

In 2009 India lost a home ODI series to Australia, when we were expected to win. I had blogged then that one of the main reasons Australia were let off (from a one-0n-one, positional matchup sense) was Sehwag vs a spinner (Hauritz then), did not happen, all through the series.

2. Batting power play has been double edged. Take it early?

Perhaps. When taken late, especially in the first innings- batters do not get singles easily, resulting in dot balls or big shots (only orthodox batters can get fours here). Double edged indeed, as a new batsman cannot tap around and rotate strike to get set to launch big shots.

One option is 35th over. But another is almost immediately after 15th over, and get done with.

If Sehwag is around in 18th over or so, then a batting power play might be an option (when spinners are surely in). He can then go for it. Sachin has been lofting well too, but if Viru gets after a spinner, this could be fun, (addresses the 1st Point)

3. Batting order change when only 2-3 wickets have fallen till 35-40th over.

Now it seems that Virat Kohli has to be move down, to allow the big shot makers get maximum overs. Fair enough. But if a supporting orthodox batter at that stage (Tendulkar/Gambhir) gets out, get Virat in, to support the big striker. if 45 overs are through- both ends can feature a big hitter.

4. Dhoni will bring on fielding plans to put the squeeze/slow down the activity, and allow spinners to focus on wickets.

a. Dhoni will have skewed fields, sometimes in-out. Be sure it is not going to be all fielders sort of all around. And with Tendulkar studying shot production of each batter, this is very much on.

b. Bowlers will be shuffled around. Unless wickets fall, I doubt more than 3-4 overs for any bowler in a spell. But slow and slower mixed with some seam bowling will be the pattern.

c. Part-timers will vary bowling angles- even a Raina has been brilliant for Chennai in IPL, by just changing angles (Pathan/Raina, whoever is in, will need to mix it). Ashwin lives on this fact, (changes trajectory and angle smartly), but with part timers this will be needed. Yuvraj has been brilliant so far in bowling as well, but do expect the Aussies to exploit the 5th bowler. That has been India’s weakness since many world cups now.

4. Defer a bowling power play?

Can be an option. Munaf Patel is an orthodox bowler and can pick wickets when batsmen are trying to mix caution and aggression.Bowling at the death has not worked for him. So if a bowling power play is deferred to the 30th over, this might work, as that is not when opposition likes to lose wickets. Moreover, spinners can put the  squeeze early (from both ends) from 10th over if needed.

Suggestions that 3 spinners (Chawla +Ashwin+Harbhajan) might make it, sounds nice, but with 20 overs of powerplay it is not easy to pull off with Zaheer Khan as the only seamer.

The nice thing is India has done well so far, except for few phases in the league. So they may be peaking at the right time (never easy to control that). The spin department now looks set to make the bowling look threatening.

Can Dhoni make the team look like it had reserved their best plans for the knock-outs?

Thats alone will raise the bar for the rest. Come on, beating India in India should feel daunting for the rest…

@saumilzx

Mumbai, India
22 Mar 2011

#shotzxQ2 Tendulkar Quiz, $100 Amazon Gift Voucher

#shotzxQ2

Will Sachin Tendulkar finally be a World Champion in this ICC World Cup 2011?

Click to Tweet: @shotzx #shotzxQ2 [your reason]

Guess our answer before 24 March 2011, and win $100 worth Amazon eBook vouchers!

Your answer must be an explanation, not just yes/no. The first person whose reasoning matches our one line answer, will be winner. Our answer is in this password protected PDF file. Download it for reference, we will disclose the password later.

Tweet to @shotzx : You need to include the hashtag #shotzxQ2 in your tweet with your answer, and send a public reply to @shotzx

prize: The first person whose reasoning is closest to our view will get a gift coupon worth $100 to buy Amazon Kindle ebooks.

To redeem gift coupons- you will need an Amazon.com account (not at other country specific Amazon sites).

Quiz terms & rules on our website: shotzx.com quiz section

Update: see comment below. For Indian citizens, we can offer a cheque of the equivalent dollar amount, as our feedback suggests that many are not yet set up or unsure about eBook access at Amazon.com. Hope that will change before we release our next book

THE MATTERS OF A LEGEND #lessons along Tendulkar

An ebook about lessons learnt by @saumilzx, following Sachin Tendulkar over the past decade(s).

A book by a fan for the fans!

In my view, fans must participate more constructively and support their favorite sport in direct ways, such as wiriting an eBook. It may be tough to find time, but sports and other forms of entertainment consume 10-20% of our day. If we improve, our sport does too!

For whom: apart from cricket and Tendulkar fans, there are many aspects which relate to sports as such- from which cricket issues are derived. To simplify matters, the book uses twitter style hashtags for basic concepts and rules and interesting anecdotes.

Availability: it was intended for 2008/09. But Tendulkar kept teaching us more in 2010. Finally, when India drew the test series in South Africa, (Jan 2011) and got a par/surplus home-away record with every test nation, I decided to put it together. Hopefully, it will be done by May 2011. Will be available on Amazon.com as a Kindle ebook, which can be read on Macs, PCs, iPad, and other mobile platforms.

Sachin Tendulkar (Career x 0) if we do not win this World Cup?

Sachin Tendulkar (Career x 0) if we do not win this World Cup? And if we win it, it will be (Career x 1)?

1. If that is what you think, there is a simple advice- do not put your kids into cricket or any team sport. You will only create nuisance for others.

2. If you see India in World Cups since ’92, we have never topped a league phase. We were typically 4th/5th overall. So Saurav Ganguly’s team was a success (2nd in 2003). Even if do win this WC, we have a long way to go to be a #1 ODI team. These knockouts are not extensive tests. (poor format to find a World Champion).

3. If you think the World Cup matches are the only few which matter then were we so stupid to critiicize or watch other 400-500 odd matches India played in two decades. Sure, these are important, but Tendulkar’s frquency of 50s (abt 50%) is about twice that of Ponting or Richards (25-33%), not any more unfortunately. ya, ya, matters and all that… wait for my book!

For quiz and my new book,
visit http://www.shotzx.com

@saumilzx

ICC Cricket World Cup 2011-Probability Quiz

ICC Cricket World Cup 2011- %

In my view, India start as favorites with __% chance of winning it. You may have another team. Whoever it is, give an explanation of the % probability of that team- and win a a copy of my next ebook. see below.

The Cricket World Cup is due to begin on 19th Feb. Once again, the format has changed. There will be two groups of 7 teams. Each group will have 4 of the 8 major countries (India, South Africa, England, West Indies in one group and Australia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, New  Zealand in the other). The remaining three teams will be the -dare we say- ‘minnows’.

Since a generous helping of 4 teams will qualify for the next phase- a knockout from quater-finals- it appears that the league phase is a formality. Obviously, an upset or two by a weak team, may not be enough for them to qualify. But ignore them at your own peril!

Sure the league phase of 2011 is not as decisive as the league phases of 2007 (4 team mini-league followed by 8 team league) or those of 1999/03, where the top 3 qualify to the super-six round,  and they carry their points (so it made sense to be in the top two when entering the super six, to make it easier to get into the semis). But there is value in doing well in this year’s league phase too.

Advantages of doing well in the league, even though the next phase is a start-from-scratch quarter-finals:

1. The top of the league will play the weakest team from the other group. Now this quater-finals based approach is quite ludicrous for a world cup, (as I will show in my soon to be released book) but that is how it is. All teams can put the league behind them, and start fresh, and try to win the next three rounds. But at least by topping a group, a team will be playing the weakest team from the other group. The result is not a given, but at least it improves a team’s chances to make it to the semi-finals. This means they need to win two tough games, rather than three.

2. Team confidence and momentum: when the knock-outs begin, a team needs to have sorted out its team composition. Messing in the league, will only lead to chopping and changing team balance. The team’s mental frame cannot be positive, if the roles are not sorted out.

Of course, the flip side of this arguement is that a team which is unconvincing in the league might just begin to ‘peak’ or ‘click as a unit’ at the right time, (especially so for sides like Pakistan, which become dangerous when this happens). But then there is no exact method for that. No team can intentionally try to be unconvincing as such, and yet be good enough to qualify. Whereas, if you do well to qualify early in the league, you can hide your tactics and conserve energy for the next phase. There can be a method for that.

3. Ignore the minnows at your own peril.

The so callled minnows have by now caused enough damage over the last few years. Zimbabwe topped their group in 1999, spoiling South Africa’s chances to get a higher rank in the super six. That semi-final tied match…. Then Kenya made it to the semi-finals in 2003. As far as 2007, it is way too painful to even alude to it.

But this time, since a team has to win 3 or 4 matches to qualify, it seems a ‘minnow’ may not qualify. Sure? Think again. From the three week minnows, two are weaker, so even a minnow may be expected to win two matches. If it upsets one more team, a three way tie for the fourth slot (with 3 wins each) cannot be ruled out.

Besides, a loss against a minnow will lower a major team’s position in the points table, even if it qualifies. Which means it plays the higher seeded team from the other group in the quarter finals.

Enough of league analysis.

What are the chances of a team winning the world cup? Explain and win an eBook.

1. You have to answer (& explain too) :

The maximum starting probability of any team winning the ICC cricket world cup 2011  is not greater than __% and why.

Hint: whoever is your favorite, their starting chances of winning the World Cup will be well below 50%. That is the nature of the format.
Extra hint: Winning three in a row (assuming a team gets to quarter-finals) is less probable for any team which would otherwise be good enough to win 5 out of 7 matches against most teams. This format undermines the stronger teams a lot more than the past formats, where knockouts were from semi-finals.

2. post a link on twitter to your explanation- append these three words #quiz #cwc2011 @saumilzx at the end of your tweet.

3. The best 3 explanations (in my view), will get a gift copy of my next Kindle ebook- yes its about cricket*

4. Due Date: Since we are not concerned about which team, but how you calculated the starting %, you can send in replies till 15 March 2011. Also, in event the publishing of my next cricket related ebook is delayed beyond 31 March 2011, I will gift an Amazon Kindle gift voucher of the equivalent amount of the planned ebook instead.

@saumilzx
Mumbai, 15 Feb 2011

*A Kindle ebook can be read on Mac, PC,  Kindle, iPad and other mobile phones where the free Kindle reader software is available. You will need a free account at Amazon though. To receive Kindle/Amazon vouchers, you will need to provide an email address (can do later).